YUNDA HOLDING(002120)：NOTABLE QOQ IMPROVEMENT IN 4Q22;WATCHEPS RECOVERY

　　2022 and 1Q23 results in line with our expectations
　　Yunda Holding announced its 2022 results: Revenue rose 14% YoY to Rmb47.43bn, net profit attributable to shareholders rose 2% YoY to Rmb1.48bn, and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders fell 1% YoY to Rmb1.39bn. In 4Q22, revenue fell 7% YoY to Rmb12.22bn, net profit attributable to shareholders increased 6% YoY to Rmb718mn, and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders fell 1% YoY to Rmb692mn. The results were in line with our expectations.
　　The firm was hit hard by COVID-19 resurgence in 2022, with per-parcel cost up 19% YoY to Rmb2.34 （excluding delivery fees）。 Transport cost per parcel rose Rmb0.11 to Rmb0.61, with transfer cost up Rmb0.06 to Rmb0.37 and net profit per parcel up 6% YoY to Rmb0.08.
　　Since 3Q22, the firm has stepped up efforts to ensure the stability of its networks, services, and customer base, and its efforts to promote the construction of end-market infrastructure such as network warehouses have paid off. The quality of express delivery services, in terms of fulfillment, has improved. In addition, the firm has taken active measures to enhance the structure of express delivery parcels. As a result, net profit per parcel rose YoY and QoQ to Rmb0.16 in 4Q22.
　　The firm also announced its 1Q23 results: Revenue fell 9% YoY to Rmb10.48bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose 3% YoY to Rmb359mn. The firm preannounced that its parcel volume reached 3.93bn in 1Q23, with market share down 3.6ppt YoY to 14.2%. Per-parcel revenue increased Rmb0.06 YoY to Rmb2.74. Per-parcel net profit rose Rmb0.01 YoY to Rmb0.09. Recurring net profit per parcel stayed flat YoY at Rmb0.09.
　　Trends to watch
　　Sector parcel volume likely resume double-digit growth in 2023; ASP to remain stable due to the impact of regulations. According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, sector parcel volume grew 11% YoY in 1Q23 （vs. +10.5% YoY in 1Q22）， and the YoY growth should accelerate notably beginning in 2Q23 due to lower base. We expect sector parcel volume to resume double-digit growth in 2023, indicating a positive growth outlook.
　　Moreover, in our April 14, 2022 report, Analyzing express delivery industry from market, platform, regulatory perspectives , we believe that firms in the industry will focus on the healthy and high-quality development as the price war between express delivery names is kept under control by the regulator. Although competition for market share may intensify, we believe that per parcel price is likely to remain stable, resulting in stable earnings in the industry. In addition, we believe the firm’s cash flow will improve as its recent capex peak has passed （Yunda’s capex fell 57% YoY to Rmb3.52bn in 2022）。 At present, market expectations and the company’s valuation are at a trough level. As a result, we remain upbeat on investment opportunities in the express delivery sector.
　　We expect profit to recover as business volume, capacity utilization rate, and cost control improve. We believe that the firm’s revenue will continue to benefit from the recovery in the industry’s parcel volume growth as a result of improved service. We expect the firm to achieve attractive earnings recovery through effective cost control. The firm’s capex has gradually trended downward after three years of heavy capex. We expect the emergence of economies of scale if parcel volume recovers and if capacity utilization rate rises. We also expect a decline in fuel and other costs as the impact of COVID-19 resurgence eases. We believe the firm will continue to optimize its expenses, and G&A and selling expenses to fall thanks to refined management and decline in financial expenses as a result of improved balance sheet.
　　Financials and valuation
　　As revenue per parcel in the industry may edge down, we lower our 2023 and 2024 revenue forecasts 4.2% and 4.1% to Rmb55.1bn and Rmb62.5bn, and cut our earnings forecasts 4.1% and 3.2% to Rmb2.8bn and Rmb3.5bn. The stock is trading at 12x and 9x 2023e and 2024e P/E. We lower our target price 17% to Rmb16.7, implying 17x and 14x 2023e and 2024e P/E, offering 47% upside. Maintain OUTPERFORM.
　　Risks
　　Parcel volume disappoints; fiercer competition.
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   【免责声明】本文仅代表第三方观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。